Tuesday, November 06, 2007
The Numbers Game
The father of a prominent youth breeder once told me that in Hollands, it all comes down to a numbers game. How many kits you can produce and how many you can put on the table will be the difference in your success.
I wasn't sure that I agreed with that. After all, there are some very small rabbitries that do very well. But after I thought about it a while, the small ones that I know of that do well either have operated a long time or were large at one time.
Maybe he was right.
When I breed ten does, I expect 20 live kits. Of those live kits, 1/3 of them will be false dwarfs. So I'll have 13 or 14 rabbits that even possibly could be show quality. My rate of keepers has improved, but still just one or maybe two good ones in every ten kits you produce is a reasonable expectation. Another one or two might make nice breeding stock, too, but I'm talking about producing competitive animals in this case. The rest may have nice parts or be useful in other ways.
So if I keep 16 working does in my barn, I may be breeding ten of them in any given month (considering that some each month are nursing or getting back into shape to breed). And I'm producing just one or two really nice rabbits per month.
Compare that to a barn that has 48 or more producing does in the barn. They can produce three times the number of nice rabbits, perhaps 6 per month.
None of this takes into consideration, of course, the quality of the starting herd or the breeder's expertise and downright luck. As they say in car commercials, your actual results may vary.
So now we come to the show table. Each exhibitor has some seniors that they've collected over time. Luckily in our breed we have long shelf life. But the smaller barn puts up one junior they are really excited about and the larger barn puts up six really nice ones. Judges being human just miss a certain percentages of good rabbits over time. Who has the best chance of winning?
Maybe that father was right, it comes down to a numbers game.
But on the other hand, the Best of Breed at Convention has come from a very small rabbitry where he was the only entry. Can quality make up for quantity?
I have to believe so. I have to believe that it's not just sheer numbers that determines who wins. I've had 178 rabbits in my barn and I've had 28 (actually, I have 27 plus a kit right now). The smaller number really suits my lifestyle better. I don't want to be a slave to my barn. I have a lot of life outside of bunnies and a lot of life inside bunnies that doesn't involve my barn.
I'm not a patient person, so I'm glad I went through a high number time. That let me produce more keepers in a shorter amount of time. That helped me sort out what I wanted my line to be like. I hope that I've collected up all of the cream of that period of time and can now work with a smaller number and have success. I know I won't like just having one or two nice rabbits per month. I'm used to having a larger show string. But I'll have to be satisfied with it. And I have to believe that bigger isn't always better. Sometimes the little guy can win, too.
Laurie ¶ 10:15 AM
I wasn't sure that I agreed with that. After all, there are some very small rabbitries that do very well. But after I thought about it a while, the small ones that I know of that do well either have operated a long time or were large at one time.
Maybe he was right.
When I breed ten does, I expect 20 live kits. Of those live kits, 1/3 of them will be false dwarfs. So I'll have 13 or 14 rabbits that even possibly could be show quality. My rate of keepers has improved, but still just one or maybe two good ones in every ten kits you produce is a reasonable expectation. Another one or two might make nice breeding stock, too, but I'm talking about producing competitive animals in this case. The rest may have nice parts or be useful in other ways.
So if I keep 16 working does in my barn, I may be breeding ten of them in any given month (considering that some each month are nursing or getting back into shape to breed). And I'm producing just one or two really nice rabbits per month.
Compare that to a barn that has 48 or more producing does in the barn. They can produce three times the number of nice rabbits, perhaps 6 per month.
None of this takes into consideration, of course, the quality of the starting herd or the breeder's expertise and downright luck. As they say in car commercials, your actual results may vary.
So now we come to the show table. Each exhibitor has some seniors that they've collected over time. Luckily in our breed we have long shelf life. But the smaller barn puts up one junior they are really excited about and the larger barn puts up six really nice ones. Judges being human just miss a certain percentages of good rabbits over time. Who has the best chance of winning?
Maybe that father was right, it comes down to a numbers game.
But on the other hand, the Best of Breed at Convention has come from a very small rabbitry where he was the only entry. Can quality make up for quantity?
I have to believe so. I have to believe that it's not just sheer numbers that determines who wins. I've had 178 rabbits in my barn and I've had 28 (actually, I have 27 plus a kit right now). The smaller number really suits my lifestyle better. I don't want to be a slave to my barn. I have a lot of life outside of bunnies and a lot of life inside bunnies that doesn't involve my barn.
I'm not a patient person, so I'm glad I went through a high number time. That let me produce more keepers in a shorter amount of time. That helped me sort out what I wanted my line to be like. I hope that I've collected up all of the cream of that period of time and can now work with a smaller number and have success. I know I won't like just having one or two nice rabbits per month. I'm used to having a larger show string. But I'll have to be satisfied with it. And I have to believe that bigger isn't always better. Sometimes the little guy can win, too.
Laurie ¶ 10:15 AM
